From Louisville to St. Louis, dry conditions intensify as fall heat holds on

High pressure locks in the pattern

A dome of high pressure has settled across much of the central and eastern United States, keeping storm systems away and locking in a stretch of clear, dry days. In Kentucky, October has opened more like late summer than fall. Afternoon highs continue to reach into the 80s, well above the October average of around 70 degrees in Louisville, KY.

Lows have dipped into the upper 30s and 40s in some valleys, a reminder that autumn is edging closer. But forecasters say the warmth is not done yet. With the high pressure parked over the Ohio River Valley, cooler Canadian air is being held to the north, leaving the region stuck under sunny, dry skies.

A dry September in the record books

The lack of rain is being felt far beyond Kentucky. September finished among the driest on record in several U.S. cities.

• St. Louis, MO, saw its eighth driest September.
• Cleveland, OH, recorded its second driest on record.
• Beckley, WV, had its fourth driest.

Across the Northeast, soil moisture has dropped sharply. Groundwater levels in southern Vermont are near record lows. Even where rain did fall, it offered little long-term help. One to three inches landed on parts of New York, PA, and northern West Virginia last week, but much of it ran off the parched ground instead of soaking in.

Impact on farms and fields

The drought is bearing down on farming communities. “Farmers in the Greenbrier Valley of West Virginia are being adversely impacted by the drought," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill. “One farmer had to sell lamb early because the pastures are too short."

In Kentucky, the U.S. Drought Monitor has classified much of the state in “moderate drought." Meteorologist Chase Graham with the National Weather Service in Louisville said rains from late September helped briefly, but not enough. “We will continue to see drought conditions over the next few weeks," Graham explained.

Shifts ahead

Forecasters say temperatures in Kentucky will stay above average through October 24. Graham noted that a short-lived cold front later in the month could pull highs down into the 60s with lows in the 40s, before bouncing back to the 80s.

In the interior Northeast, the clear skies, calm winds, and bone-dry soils may set the stage for frost or even a light freeze. For many places, afternoons will still end up warmer than normal, thanks to the sun’s energy heating the dry ground instead of evaporating moisture.

What forecasters say

Chad Merrill: “The lack of rain pushed several cities into the top 10 driest Septembers on record. St. Louis had its eighth driest September on record; Cleveland has its second driest; and Beckley, WV, had its fourth driest."

Chase Graham: “We will continue to see drought conditions over the next few weeks. The magnitude the drought will have on us is hard for me to say at this point."