Monsoon ends across the Southwest: Drier air, rising temperatures, and wildfire danger ahead
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Monsoon season winds down
The North American monsoon that brought bursts of thunderstorms across the Southwest is drawing to a close. A change in wind direction, triggered by a storm system pushing into the Pacific Northwest, will shut down the supply of tropical moisture from Mexico and mark a turn toward drier, warmer days.Meteorologists describe the shift as a classic October setup. A storm system will bring needed rain and gusty winds into the Northwest, but farther south, the skies will clear. Interior areas of the Southwest will see a sharp drop in showers and thunderstorms.
Phoenix: from drought to deluge
The late-season rains left their mark on Phoenix, AZ. For much of the summer, heavy downpours avoided the city, leaving it with just 0.95 inches of rainfall — its 19th driest summer on record. Then, in late September, the skies opened.On September 26, Phoenix recorded 1.64 inches of rain in a single day, the most of any day this year. Between September 26 and 27, the city collected 1.85 inches, making September one of its five wettest on record with a total of 2.26 inches.
That sudden burst of water brought short-term relief but did little to erase long-term drought conditions.
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Southwest US forecast: End of monsoon brings drier, warmer weather and wildfire riskPattern change across the West
The monsoon is defined by the seasonal reversal of winds, bringing humid air from the south into the deserts of the Southwest. That supply of tropical moisture fuels the summer thunderstorm season. Now, with winds shifting back to the west, cooler-season storm systems will dominate.This year’s transition means more sun, rising temperatures, and an elevated fire risk. Dry brush, briefly dampened by September rain, will quickly dry out again under steady sun and gusty winds. Forecasters warn that sparks could ignite fast-moving wildfires under these conditions.
Looking ahead
The atmosphere often plays tricks during autumn. While the current pattern favors warmth and dryness, meteorologists note that another push of tropical moisture could return during the second week of October. Until then, much of the Southwest will stay dry, with higher temperatures and persistent fire danger.
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