Forecasters Track a Parade of Snow Systems as Uncertain Storm Paths Threaten the Northeast and Great Lakes

A complex winter pattern takes shape

Forecasters are monitoring a complicated winter setup across the eastern United States as multiple snow-producing systems line up for the week ahead. Confidence is high that snow and Arctic cold will return. Confidence is low on exact timing, location, and totals.

“This is a challenging forecast," forecasters acknowledged as guidance shifted from run to run. Maps change. Tracks wobble. The signal remains active.

Two coastal storms under scrutiny

Meteorologists warned on January 12 that a disruptive snowstorm could impact major population centers along the Northeast corridor later in the week. At the same time, details remain highly uncertain.

Jon Porter, AccuWeather senior vice president of forecast operations: “There is potential for accumulating snow in parts of the Northeast this week, depending on the track of two coastal storms."

The National Weather Service echoed that uncertainty the same day.

National Weather Service: “The forecast guidance keeps changing its tune regarding details within the broad cyclone near the Northeast Thursday and Friday."

Snow already a certainty in several regions

While the big cities remain a question mark, snow is expected elsewhere with much greater confidence. The National Weather Service confirmed that snow will spread across large interior sections of the East.

National Weather Service: “Snow will envelop the Lower Great Lakes, the central Appalachians, and interior Northeast late Wednesday and continuing into the second half of the week."

Cold air flowing over the Lower Great Lakes will also trigger lake-effect snow bands across established snow belts. These bands may persist for days, reshaping the landscape mile by mile.

First system brings early snow and cold

The initial system arrives Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading snow across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. The snow lingers into interior New England by Thursday.

Most areas can expect lighter accumulations, generally in the 1 to 3 inch range, stretching from the Midwest through the Ohio Valley and into interior New England. Heavier snow is favored downwind of the Great Lakes and across higher terrain in the Appalachians.

Models currently keep this first round of snow well away from the Interstate 95 corridor.

Jet stream position holds the key

The placement of the jet stream later in the week will determine how the next storm evolves. As it dips southward on Thursday, January 15, it will guide the development and movement of a coastal low from Thursday night into Friday, January 16.

Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather meteorologist: “A storm that tracks farther east would likely head out to sea, bringing snow showers to parts of the interior Northeast and mid-Atlantic states."

He outlined a different possibility as well.

Alex Sosnowski: “In another scenario, a storm that tracks closer to the coast could spread snow across much of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England late in the week."

Big cities could still miss the snow

Despite two separate opportunities, AccuWeather cautioned that major metropolitan areas along the I-95 corridor could end up missing snow entirely from both storms. That outcome remains on the table.

Forecasters stress patience. The details may not resolve until hours before snow begins, or even after it starts.

Arctic air surges south

Beyond snowfall, confidence is high that very cold air will pour southward behind these systems. Temperatures will tumble across the eastern half of the country.

By Thursday, highs are expected to drop into the teens across the Great Lakes and the 20s in the Ohio Valley. Parts of the Southeast may struggle to rise out of the 30s.

Strong winds following the cold front will amplify the chill. Wind chills could reach dangerous levels, especially across the Northern Plains, where values as low as 20 to 30 degrees below zero are possible.

Second and third systems extend the threat

A second system arrives late in the week, spreading additional snow from the Midwest into the Great Lakes before pushing east. Many areas that see snow earlier in the week may receive more, adding to totals.

As this system approaches the Northeast late Friday into Saturday, accumulating snow becomes possible for the I-95 corridor. Messy travel and potential airport delays could follow, though confidence remains low.

Snow may linger across parts of the Northeast through Sunday.

Mother Nature may not stop there. A third system is expected by the end of the weekend, reinforcing cold temperatures and delivering another round of fresh snow to the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast.

When totals are tallied:

• Parts of the Great Lakes could receive up to 18 inches of snow for the week
• Widespread areas may see at least a foot
• Higher elevations of the Appalachians could exceed one foot in some locations

Cold air remains locked in. The pattern stays active. Forecasters continue to refine the picture as each system approaches.