Will Wisconsin Face a Harsh Winter? Forecast Models Disagree on What’s Ahead

Four Forecasts, Four Different Outlooks

As temperatures continue to fall across Wisconsin, United States, the question on many minds is simple: how severe will this winter be?
Four major forecasting systems — NOAA, AccuWeather, the Farmers’ Almanac, and the Old Farmer’s Almanac — have all issued seasonal predictions for the 2025-2026 winter. Their outlooks vary widely, leaving residents with one clear takeaway: uncertainty.

Meteorological winter officially begins on December 1, while astronomical winter starts later, on December 21.

La Niña Returns — But Its Impact May Be Limited

This year’s forecasts come under the influence of La Niña, the recurring Pacific Ocean climate pattern known to alter global weather. According to the National Weather Service, La Niña conditions are already established and are likely to persist until February 2026.
Yet, forecasters say the impact on Wisconsin will likely be modest. There is a slight chance of a warmer and wetter winter, but major deviations from average conditions are not expected.

NOAA: Split Forecast Across the State

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its most recent winter outlook on October 16. Its forecast divides Wisconsin almost down the middle:

• The southeast has an equal likelihood of above, below, or near-average temperatures.
• The northwest shows a 33% to 40% chance of below-average temperatures.

For precipitation, NOAA projects a 33%-40% probability of above-average totals statewide. This means a wetter winter overall — potentially more snow, more freezing rain, or both.

AccuWeather: A Classic Cold and Snowy Winter

AccuWeather’s October 2 forecast paints a more traditional picture. The company predicts a cold, snowy season for much of the Midwest, including Wisconsin.
Snowfall is expected to be above normal, though some winter storms may bring a messy mix of rain and snow rather than consistent flurries.

Forecasters expect:

• Cold conditions developing in December
• A brief January thaw
• A return to frigid air by February

Farmers’ Almanac: “Very Cold, Snowy Winter"

The Farmers’ Almanac offers one of the starkest predictions. Its extended forecast warns of a very cold, snowy winter across Wisconsin.
Editor Sandi Duncan described the upcoming season as one defined by repetition: “It’s going to cool down, it’s going to snow, then it might warm up a little, then it’s going to repeat itself again."

According to the Almanac, most of the United States is set for a “cold or very cold" stretch through much of the season, suggesting frequent temperature swings and multiple snow events.

Old Farmer’s Almanac: Milder, But Still Winter

The Old Farmer’s Almanac stands apart from the rest. Its forecast calls for a mild and relatively dry winter in Wisconsin — though even it acknowledges that “mild" is a relative term.
In its fall weather outlook, the publication also noted the possibility of early-season snow, potentially arriving as soon as September.

“It’s still winter—so plan (and dress!) accordingly," the Almanac warned. “And if you’re in a snow-prone area, don’t retire that shovel just yet."

What Residents Can Expect

While the models disagree on the intensity of the coming winter, they align on one theme — variability. Temperatures will fluctuate, snow will come and go, and brief thaws will likely interrupt colder spells.

For now, Wisconsinites should prepare for anything from mild and slushy to bitter and blustery. As the season approaches, forecasters will continue refining their models — and residents across the Badger State will be watching the skies.