Maui, Hawaii faces renewed flooding risk as Kona storms return to wildfire-scarred areas

Rain returns to already saturated islands

The ground is still soaked. Roads are still damaged. And now, more rain is on the way.

Across Maui, HI, another kona storm is approaching, only days after a record-breaking deluge reshaped parts of the island. The previous storm, which lasted from March 10 to 16, brought extraordinary rainfall. In some locations, totals exceeded 5 feet of rain. At Haleakalā crater, near the summit, 33 inches fell in just 24 hours.

This next system is expected to be weaker. Still, forecasters warn it may not take much to trigger new flooding.

The soil cannot absorb much more. Water has nowhere to go.

Flood risk rises quickly on burn scars

Much of Hawaii remains under a flood watch.

National Weather Service forecasters point to a critical factor. The land is already saturated, and the terrain has changed.

“Given the high soil saturation from the recent kona storm, even moderate rainfall rates could pose a risk for rapid runoff and flooding," forecasters said.

In areas affected by wildfires, the danger increases further. Burn scars left behind by recent fires do not absorb water well. Instead, rainwater runs off quickly, carrying debris downhill.

The result is fast-moving runoff, erosion, and a growing risk of mudslides.

Lahaina sees the impact again

In Lahaina, Maui, HI, the effects are already visible.

The same hillsides that burned during the devastating 2023 wildfire are now sending debris downslope. Ash, soil, and loose material are being washed into neighborhoods and streets.

Joseph Pluta, a resident who lost his home in that fire, described the scene in direct terms.

“All that crap is washing down the hill to people’s homes and to the ocean and into the streets. It is a real mess," he said.

The pattern is repeating. Fire, then rain. Rain, then flooding.

Kona storms reverse the usual weather pattern

Hawaii is no stranger to heavy rainfall. Under normal conditions, most precipitation falls on the windward sides of the islands, where trade winds push moist air up mountain slopes.

Thomas Giambelluca, University of Hawaii at Mānoa, Hawaii, explained that some windward locations receive around 400 inches of rain per year.

Leeward areas, including parts of Maui, are typically much drier.

Kona storms change that pattern entirely.

These systems form when a low-pressure area separates from the jet stream and settles northwest of the islands. Winds shift. Instead of arriving from the northeast, they begin flowing from the south, pulling in deep tropical moisture.

Rain falls where it usually does not.

Heavy rain. Persistent rain.

A dangerous overlap of fire and flood

The regions hit hardest by kona storms are the same regions where wildfires have become more frequent.

This overlap creates a cycle. Dry conditions and flammable vegetation increase fire risk. After a fire, the landscape changes. Soil structure weakens. Vegetation that once held the ground in place is gone.

Then the rain arrives.

Clay Trauernicht, a wildfire specialist at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Hawaii, has warned about this connection for years.

Fires and floods are not separate events. They are linked.

The 2023 Lahaina fire made that link visible. The current flooding is reinforcing it.

Recent storms already broke records

The previous kona storm set daily rainfall records at four official observation sites, according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu, HI.

Local officials describe the impact in stark terms.

“Unlike anything we have experienced in our lifetime," said Laksmi Abraham, spokesperson for Maui County.

Infrastructure was damaged. Buildings collapsed. Roads buckled under the force of water.

Now, with another system approaching, even a moderate amount of rain may be enough to trigger renewed disruption.

The ground remains saturated.

The risk remains high.