Category 5 Hurricane Lowell Spins South of Hawaii as Forecasters Watch Pacific Storms for Possible Surf, Rain and Coastal Impacts

Pacific turns active as Atlantic stays quiet

The Atlantic hurricane season remains quiet for now, but the Pacific is active and crowded with tropical systems.

By September 2, the Pacific had already produced 15 tropical storms and hurricanes in 2026. Three systems were active at the same time: Hurricane Lowell, Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie.

The official forecasts keep all three away from land. Still, a few outlier computer models are drawing attention because they show possible indirect or closer impacts near Hawaii and California.

The ocean is busy.

Lowell strengthens into a Category 5 hurricane

Hurricane Lowell strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane on September 2 while spinning well south of Hawaii.

The storm had sustained winds of 160 mph. Category 5 hurricanes have sustained winds of 157 mph or higher.

Lowell is not expected to directly strike Hawaii, but forecasters warned that the hurricane will still send dangerous ocean conditions toward the islands.

The National Hurricane Center said in a September 2 bulletin: “Swells generated by Lowell are likely to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands beginning on Wednesday [Sept. 2]."

The center added: “These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions."

Hawaii told to monitor Lowell closely

The National Hurricane Center said there is “a high likelihood that Lowell will remain a powerful hurricane for days to come."

In its key messages, the center said interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor Lowell’s progress.

The official track forecast shows Lowell moving west to the south of the Hawaiian Islands before making a sharp right turn toward the north over the weekend. By Monday, the forecast places Lowell about 400 miles southwest of Honolulu, HI.

There is still uncertainty.

The hurricane center said there is “considerable uncertainty on how sharp that turn might be."

Most computer models keep Lowell well west of Hawaii. One outlier model, the Canadian model, shows a much sharper turn directly toward Hawaii by early next week.

Honolulu forecasters say details remain unsettled

The National Weather Service in Honolulu, HI, said important details still need to be resolved.

The weather service said: “A lot of details on the timing and exact track of the system, coupled with associated impacts, remain to be ironed out."

That uncertainty matters because a powerful hurricane does not need to make landfall to create hazards. Large swells can arrive far from the storm center, and rough surf can increase before skies show major signs of a tropical cyclone nearby.

For Hawaii, the primary concern in the official forecast is not a direct hit, but dangerous surf and rip currents generated by Lowell.

Karina remains powerful east of Hawaii

Hurricane Karina was also spinning across the Pacific.

As of Wednesday morning, September 2, Karina was a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 145 mph. The National Weather Service in Honolulu said Karina was about 1,490 miles east of Hilo, HI.

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center had Karina moving west-northwest through Friday, September 4, before lifting farther north over the weekend.

Karina is not expected to bring a major negative impact to Hawaii’s weather. The weather service said that as Karina moves northeast of the islands this weekend and early next week, it will help disrupt strong trade wind flow and allow winds to return initially to more moderate levels.

Marie becomes a question mark for Southern California

Farther east, Tropical Storm Marie is forecast to stay well offshore of the Baja Peninsula, Mexico.

Marie is still a question mark, though only a remote one, for Southern California. The storm is forecast to move along a track that brings it to a point about 775 miles southwest of San Diego, CA, on Sunday, September 6, according to the National Weather Service office in San Diego.

Marie is forecast to briefly become a hurricane, then dissipate over the weekend.

Most forecast guidance keeps the system offshore and out over the open Pacific. A few outlier computer models, often called spaghetti models, show a chance Marie could move closer to the California coast or the northern Baja California Peninsula, Mexico.

No indication of a California hurricane landfall

Despite social media attention around outlier model tracks, Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, said the current signals do not support a hurricane landfall in California.

Daniel Swain: “Zero indication of anything close to a hurricane strength system actually making landfall in California or even making a very close approach."

The majority of models, along with the National Hurricane Center’s official track forecast, show Marie moving into the open Pacific.

Still, Swain said indirect effects are becoming more plausible for Southern California.

Daniel Swain: “Increasingly plausible that a tropical system of some magnitude will have at least indirect effects in Southern California for several days later this week."

He said humid air, clouds and heavy surf are likely regardless.

San Diego forecast includes shower and thunderstorm chances

For San Diego, CA, the National Weather Service office said the most likely scenario involves moisture being drawn northeastward across Southern California.

That moisture could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday, September 5, through Monday, September 7.

This would not require Marie to make landfall. Moisture can spread far from a weakening tropical system, feeding cloud cover, humidity and locally unsettled weather inland.

Southern California’s concern is indirect influence, not a direct hurricane strike in the official forecast.

Tropical systems rarely make landfall in Southern California

Tropical systems and their remnants have affected Southern California many times in recorded weather history. Their moisture, cloud cover, surf and rainfall can reach the region even when the storm center stays offshore or weakens.

A historical database compiled by researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows no hurricane has made landfall in Southern California in recorded history, meaning no hurricane center has crossed the shoreline there.

Two systems came close.

A hurricane with 75 mph winds passed just offshore on October 2, 1858.

On September 24, 1939, a hurricane known as “El Cordonazo" approached Los Angeles, CA, but weakened to tropical storm strength just before moving ashore. It was also the last time a tropical storm made landfall in Southern California.

Atlantic basin remains unusually quiet near peak season

While the Pacific remains active, the Atlantic basin had no tropical cyclone activity as of September 2 after Edouard dissipated.

Top forecasters from Colorado State University said in a two-week forecast released September 2 that the quiet pattern should continue.

Colorado State University forecasters: “We are strongly favoring below-normal activity during the next two weeks. There are currently no active TCs (tropical cyclones), and the National Hurricane Center is not monitoring areas for TC formation in the next week."

They also said global model signals for tropical cyclone development in the next two weeks were “remarkably weak," even though the period includes the climatological peak of the season.

The typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is around September 10, according to NOAA.

Tiny Edouard still brought extreme rain to Texas

Tropical Storm Edouard was small, but it produced major rainfall in parts of south Texas.

A day after making landfall, the storm was still dumping rain over parts of Texas. On the morning of September 2, a rain gauge at Little Pine Island Bayou, TX, northwest of Beaumont, TX, recorded 5.96 inches of rain in one hour, according to Joe Rua, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Lake Charles, LA.

The same gauge recorded 13.51 inches of rain in the four hours between 3 and 7 a.m.

The highest gust reported in the region was 90 mph in Port Arthur, TX.

A small storm can still be a heavy rainmaker.