Record snow drought across the American West threatens water supplies and raises wildfire risk

A winter without snow

Across much of the American West, winter has arrived without its usual weight of snow. Slopes that should be white remain brown. Mountain valleys that depend on snowmelt look bare.

Scientists report that both snow cover and snow depth are at their lowest levels in decades. Normal snow cover for this time of year should reach about 460,000 square miles. This winter, it has shrunk to about 155,000 square miles, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

“I have not seen a winter like this before," said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “This pattern that we are in is so darned persistent."

Record warmth across the West

Heat has pressed down on the region for weeks. At least 67 Western weather stations recorded their warmest December through early February on record. Since December 1, more than 8,500 daily high temperature records have been tied or broken across the West, according to NOAA.

Snow that usually settles into mountain basins has instead fallen as rain. Rain runs off quickly. Snow stays and stores water. The difference matters.

In West Jordan, UT, United States, the ground remained bare. Trevor Stephens looked out of his window and shook his head. “Right now there is no snow on the ground," he said. “I would definitely rather have icy roads and snow than whatever is going on out here right now."

Snowpack at historic lows

The snowpack, measured by the amount of water locked inside the snow, is setting records. In Oregon, snowpack is not only record low. It stands 30 percent lower than the previous record, according to Jason Gerlich of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Oregon, CO, and Utah have all reported their lowest statewide snowpack since the early 1980s. January brought little relief. Many states received half of their average precipitation or less. December rains helped California more than other states, but the wider region remains dry.

At Salt Lake City International Airport, it had been 327 days since one inch of snow fell as of Monday, the longest stretch since 1890 to 1891.

Water supply under strain

Snowpack acts as a natural reservoir. As winter shifts to spring, slow melting feeds creeks and rivers. This steady release supports agriculture, cities, and hydropower systems.

This year, the reservoir is thin. The Upper Colorado River Basin sits at the center of the snow drought. Less snow now means less water later for the Colorado River and its tributaries.

“This is a pretty big problem for the Colorado basin," said Daniel Swain of the University of California Water Resources Institute.

Fire season may arrive early

The lack of snow has implications beyond water. Snow that disappears early exposes soil and vegetation to warmth sooner. The ground dries faster. Fuels dry out earlier in the year.

Experts warn that the snow drought could push the wildfire season to start sooner than normal. Daniel McEvoy of the Western Regional Climate Center said early snow loss leaves landscapes open to weeks of drying before summer heat arrives.

Why the snow did not fall

This winter has been dry in many places. It has also been unusually warm. Scientists point to the warmth as the primary reason snow did not accumulate. Precipitation that would normally fall as snow instead fell as rain and ran off quickly.

“It was so warm, especially in December, that the snow was only falling at the highest parts of the mountains," McEvoy said. “And then we moved into January and it got really dry almost everywhere for the last three to four weeks and stayed warm."

Russ Schumacher, CO State Climatologist, said snowless periods do happen. The scale of warmth has stood out.

A brief change on the horizon

Meteorologists expect wetter and cooler weather across the West this week, with some snow returning to the mountains. The change may mark the peak of the snow drought. The relief may be limited.

“I do not think there is any way we are going to go back up to average or anywhere close to that," Schumacher said. “But at least we can chip away at those deficits a little bit if it does get more active."