Rain, cooler air and severe storms possible as Phoenix enters final stretch of monsoon season
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Moisture returns late in the season
The monsoon is not quite finished with Phoenix, AZ. With the season officially closing on September 30, a surge of late moisture is expected to bring one last round of storm activity to the Valley beginning Thursday, September 25.An unseasonably strong low-pressure system parked off the coast of Southern California is set to move inland, funneling instability and moisture into Arizona. The setup, forecasters note, mirrors previous late-season events that have triggered severe weather.
“We are going to be looking at increasing rain chances over the next few days," said Isaac Smith, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Phoenix. “The best chances will be on Friday, with chances upwards of 50 to 60% with the potential for some strong, severe thunderstorms."
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Phoenix forecast: Late-season monsoon storms bring rain, cooler weather, and storm risksRain chances and cooling temperatures
Through Thursday, the region remains warmer than normal, with highs near 105 degrees in the lower deserts. Afternoon and evening storms hold a 20 to 30 percent chance of development.By Friday, September 26, daytime highs could drop into the low to mid-90s. That is several degrees below the late September average. Cooling could be even more pronounced if widespread rainfall materializes.
“This is what we call more of a transition type of event," Smith explained. “We typically see this when low-pressure systems drop down, shifting the pattern from a monsoon setup toward something more like fall."
Forecasters warn of possible strong winds, large hail, heavy downpours, and flash flooding across south-central Arizona, including the Phoenix metro. Rain chances will continue into the weekend, although activity is expected to retreat mainly to the higher terrain.
A below-normal season for rainfall
At Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, 0.91 inches of rain have been measured so far this monsoon season. The normal total for this point is 2.33 inches, with an average seasonal total of 2.43 inches.Other parts of the metro area have seen better rainfall. North Scottsdale, north Phoenix, and parts of the West Valley have each topped 2 inches.
This weekend may mark the last opportunity for Phoenix to add to its monsoon tally before the region dries out under winter weather patterns.
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