Winter 2025–26 Outlook: Snowstorms in the Midwest and Northeast, Arctic Cold for the Plains, and Drought for the West

A Winter of Contrasts Ahead

Winter is approaching fast, and early signs point to a season of sharp contrasts across the United States. Parts of the country are in for snow-packed storms and biting cold, while others may stay mild and worry about drought.

“It can be an intense, stormy winter for areas of the country, particularly across the Midwest, Great Lakes, OH Valley, Northeast, and parts of the mid-Atlantic," said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range meteorologist.

Meteorological winter begins on December 1, while astronomical winter arrives with the solstice on December 21. Early in the season, powerful systems are expected to roll out of Canada, sweep across the Midwest, and push into the mid-Atlantic and New England. Some could grow into full-blown nor’easters. Later in the winter, storms will likely shift south, traveling from the Plains through the Mississippi Valley before curving back toward the Northeast.

Snow Returns to the Midwest and Northeast

More snow is on the way for cities that saw a quiet winter last year. New York City, Philadelphia, and Boston could see higher totals this season, though not necessarily enough to exceed long-term averages. Many late-season systems may bring rain mixed with snow rather than pure snow events.

Across the Great Lakes and Midwest, conditions will be far more wintry. In Buffalo, NY, forecasters expect between 90 and 100 inches of snow - roughly the city’s historical average and significantly higher than last year’s 77.6 inches.

December may be especially active around the Great Lakes, with cold air from Canada fueling bands of heavy lake-effect snow. Ski resorts in the Rockies and Appalachians could enjoy a strong start, although a midseason lull might slow things down before storms return in late February.

Arctic Cold Targets the Plains

The heart of the country - from the Plains to the Great Lakes - will spend much of the season in the freezer. Heating bills will rise as Arctic air dives south early in December.

A brief warmup in January might give residents a short break, but by February, forecasters expect another surge of frigid air to spread eastward.

“The Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast should run above historical averages on temperatures and below on precipitation," Pastelok said. But that warmth does not mean quiet weather. Warm Gulf waters could still trigger strong thunderstorms and even tornadoes.

There is also a chance of a serious cold outbreak reaching deep into the South. Around late January or early February, a shift in weather patterns could send “significant cold air" sweeping into Texas and the Gulf Coast, bringing the threat of snow and ice. During this same period, the polar vortex could briefly dip south, unleashing some of the coldest air of the season across North America.

Warm, Dry, and Troubled in the West

The story out West will be completely different. A massive pool of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean - a marine heat wave - will dominate the pattern, driving temperatures higher and keeping rain away.

“These waters off the West Coast are very, very important going into our forecast this year," Pastelok explained. “If sea surface temperatures stay above normal just off the coast, temperature departures can be even higher and precipitation much lower."

California and the Southwest are expected to face another warm, dry season. Drought conditions could worsen through early 2026, and the risk of wildfires will remain high, even during the colder months.

Some moisture will reach the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies in December, helping to build early snowpack in the Cascades and northern Sierra. But overall, fewer atmospheric rivers are expected this winter, meaning less rain and mountain snow. January could bring the best window for precipitation in Southern California and Arizona, though it is unlikely to reverse the drought.

By February, warmth will take hold again. Near-record highs are possible in parts of California and Nevada, setting the stage for another dry spring.

La Niña May Influence the Pattern

Every winter forecast turns to one big question: will La Niña develop? The cooling of equatorial Pacific waters can strongly influence jet stream patterns and storm behavior across North America.

Pastelok said La Niña may not fully form this season, but the atmosphere could still behave as if it has. That would mean warmer, drier weather in the South and stormier conditions farther north.

If La Niña does emerge, it could deepen the cold across the central and eastern U.S. while reinforcing the drought in the West.

One thing is clear: winter 2025-26 will not be quiet. From heavy snow in the north to dry heat in the west and wild temperature swings in between, the country is bracing for another unpredictable season.